Climate Resilience: Blue Carbon AI for Precise Mitigation Efforts

The problem is the critical loss of mangroves throughout the world and the lack of incentives for its conservation and restoration. Via carbon credits this situation can turn around but it requires reliable information on carbon stocks and more certainty about location and conditions.

Mangroves are among the most productive ecosystems in the world and have the potential to support the livelihoods of millions of people when maintained responsibly. Additionally, they significantly contribute to climate change mitigation though carbon storage and adaptation by reducing the vulnerability of coastal areas to inclement weather, protecting them from erosion and sea level rise. Also, as documented by various scientific reports, mangrove degradation affects water quality and nutrient cycling.

Many communities along the Ecuadorian coast, a highly vulnerable sector, depend on mangroves. As mangroves harbor a wide variety of plant and animal species adapted to coastal environments, including migratory birds, fish, crustaceans, and marine mammals, threats to these ecosystems are a direct threat to the dietary staple and livelihoods of these communities.

However, in spite representing ecosystems of great environmental, economic, cultural, and natural protection importance, mangroves face a severe crisis. According to the head of UNESCO in 2023, 75% of the world’s mangroves are under threat, and with them all the aquatic and terrestrial organisms that depend on them.

By 2019, over a 40-year span, Ecuador lost 56,396 hectares of mangroves, equivalent to 80,000 soccer fields, affecting not only the ecosystem but also more than 10,000 families that rely on the mangrove for their livelihoods and food security. 

The problem is exacerbated by the lack of economic incentives to protect and maintain the mangroves and the economic vulnerability of the coastal communities that drive them to overexploit the mangrove without the proper practices. 

The carbon stored within mangrove forests (blue carbon) has the potential to be a solution for that financial challenge because mangroves can store 5 times more CO2 than forests and it is a good business opportunity now that carbon markets have grown and prices have been increasing. But to develop blue carbon credits at the speed and quality required by the climate change mitigation urgency, data needs to be more accurate and more accessible. 

Currently carbon data for mangroves is collected either by forest inventories done in the field with a lot of logistic and financial challenges or by satellite information that is also expensive, does not always provide detailed information, nor flexibility regarding the day the image is taken and face challenges when weather conditions aren´t good enough.

Our proposed solution, by integrating scientific research, cutting-edge technology, and community engagement, aims to fill knowledge gaps, improve data accuracy, and promote sustainable management of mangrove ecosystems to ensure their climate change resilience in a cost-effective manner.

Our solution is an AI tool that accurately measures the above-ground biomass of mangrove trees, providing crucial insights about their carbon storage capacity. By employing a deep learning algorithm trained to analyze drone imagery and elevation models – DTM Digital Terrain Model and DSM  Digital Surface Model -, it offers detailed assessments of the carbon storage of individual trees. This valuable information improves the accuracy of protection and restoration activities and facilitates the development of blue carbon credits, essential for obtaining the financial incentives for sustainable and effective conservation efforts.

Our solution uses an RGB camera, a widely available and easy to use technology, requires no special equipment or costly calibration procedures, and has lower maintenance costs. Additionally, the AI tool is based on easily accessible software packages such as H2O and Deep Forest, both can process diverse types of data and perform complex analyses. We used Jupyter Notebook to run the software packages Our solution is temporarily hosted on an Amazon server, once fully calibrated and evaluated for mangroves, it will be moved to a TNC server so everybody can get free access.

In contrast to conventional methods, our solution, along with its technological components, represents a more cost and time-effective alternative. Traditional approaches are field forest inventory, a time-consuming and complex process that requires to take samples by destroying part of the mangrove and has logistical difficulties due to the nature of the terrain, which can significantly limit the amount of area covered in the analysis. For example, conventional forest inventories can cover two plots of around 40 x 40 meters in a day, while our solution with drones can map a much larger area, up to 120 hectares in just two hours.

While the use of satellite imagery is also an alternative commonly used, its spatial resolution is not detailed enough to provide accurate and complete data and the ones with high resolution are very expensive. Also, getting cloud-free imagery is challenging. In contrast, our AI tool with the use of drones, overcomes the cloud cover barrier, and offers a combination of accuracy and efficiency. By ensuring better resolution and timely delivery of real-time alerts, it allows for a more effective response to threats. In contrast with current systems that provide monthly alerts, often arriving after the issue has passed. It´s an end-to-end solution that is both accurate and cost-effective.

Our solution is designed to serve a wide range of stakeholders worldwide, including local communities and people with historical and traditional connection to mangrove ecosystem, but also researchers, academics, protected areas, government entities, and carbon market stakeholders. The initiative is poised to create enabling conditions for the initiation of future blue carbon projects in prioritized areas.

The prototype that we are developing for mangroves includes a pilot to be developed in Guayaquil, Ecuador in cooperation with Fisher Associations such as Manglares Porteño Cooperative, Marine Association, Forjadores del Futuro Association in El Morro community, and the Sabana Grande Association in Sabana Grande. These associations help protect mangroves totaling more than 7000 hectares and represent a population of around 6000 people.

The population residing in El Morro and Sabana Grande in Ecuador are mainly coastal communities that rely on natural resources for their livelihoods. These communities use these ecosystems for fishing, shellfish harvesting, and tourism. Some of the socio-economic challenges that inhabitants face include limited access to basic health and education services, as well as employment opportunities outside the fishing and tourism sector. Their lifestyle is closely tied to nature, and they depend on the health of mangroves for their survival and well-being.

The mangroves of El Morro and Sabana Grande are home for a wide range of marine and coastal animals, including fish, crabs, mollusks, and birds like gulls, pink herons, and pelicans. Land populations like coatis and raccoons are also supported by these environments. The interaction between these communities forms complex food webs that contribute to ecosystem stability.

Central to TNC Ecuador marine strategy is the empowerment of key coastal communities and protected areas technical staff, who will undergo trainings to strengthen their skills in maintaining mangroves and measuring and managing blue carbon data in mangroves, thereby enhancing climate resilience and ecosystem conservation in these vital zones. The dissemination of accurate mangrove information to local communities equips them with the insight needed to collaborate with environmental authorities and other relevant stakeholders, thus facilitating informed decision-making for the sustainable management of mangrove ecosystems.

In addition, the data generated by our solution is going to be of immense value to scientific researchers and government worldwide. By leveraging this robust dataset, researchers can gain deeper insights into the critical role of mangroves in climate change mitigation. Consequently, this facilitates the formulation of more effective conservation strategies, and enables the generation of impactful policies.

In parallel, carbon market actors will have access to detailed and reliable information on mangroves health and mangroves carbon storage potential. This will enable them, in an easier way, to develop carbon offset projects and create sustainable economic opportunities, based on the best available scientific evidence. In essence, our solution exerts a positive impact on stakeholders by providing them with the necessary tools and knowledge to promote mangrove conservation and increase climate resilience in coastal communities.

The Nature Conservancy´s expertise in the field is exemplified by the development of Blue Carbon Explorer. A Google Earth Engine app developed by our organization and Planets Labs PBC, that leverages field-collected data from drone and satellite imagery, to help identify key areas for restoration and protection. This collaborative work has been implemented into changing coastal habitats throughout the Caribbean, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. The team involved, with its capacity and experience, provide technical support and advice to emerging teams in other countries implementing similar initiatives. Additionally, as co-founders of the Global Mangrove Alliance, alongside WWF and CI, we have played a pivotal role to address the urgent challenges facing mangrove ecosystems worldwide. Our track record demonstrates our ability to navigate complex environmental issues and deliver impactful solutions that benefit both local communities and the planet as a whole.

To prove the prototype, the pilot will be implemented in Guayaquil, Ecuador, where our TNC local team has worked tirelessly to stop the destruction of mangrove ecosystems, raise awareness, and implement science-based restoration. We have been able to bring knowledge and a strong sense of commitment to the areas we serve, thanks to a dedicated workforce willing to offer viable and creative solutions. This team is highly qualified and committed to implementing the solution, backed by both global expertise and a solid track record in the country of at least three decades working in regional and local mangrove conservation, establishing strong relationships with coastal communities and mangrove users.

Our work with mangroves has encompassed various aspects including business models, management plans, and effective communication strategies, among others. During 2022 and 2023 we were involved in evaluating and updating  the National Mangrove Plan while monitoring and supporting the conservation of mangrove areas in two zones of the Gulf of Guayaquil under a cooperation agreement between the Water Fund for the Conservation of the Daule River Basin (FONDAGUA) and The Nature Conservancy (TNC). This project was implemented in the 2 communities of the inner estuary of the Gulf of Guayaquil, El Morro and Sabana Grande (the same communities where we plan to implement the mangrove prototype AI tool).

The mentioned project developed a training process for coastal management stakeholders (involving academia, public sector officials, and mangrove custodians) on the use of the Global Mangrove Watch (GMW) tool for mangrove conservation. Additionally, monitoring and surveillance programs in these two Gulf of Guayaquil communities, were strengthened through the updating of management programs, workshops on drone use, and the delivery of equipment. The project also supported community activities such as mangrove planting, gastronomic festivals and meliponiculture training, among others.  The development of this and other projects working with the communities to pilot our solution, allow us to rely on their prior involvement and incorporating their voice.

The Nature Conservancy Ecuador built an AI tool that allows us to get detailed information on geographic location, biomass and carbon stock per tree. The tool was created for tropical rainforest and tested in agroforest ecosystems in two provinces of the Amazon forest in Ecuador: Napo and Pastaza with the support of three kichwa communities: Pueblo Kichwa de Rukullacta, San Jacinto, Chontapunta and Chicocopataza that allowed us to overfly with drones their indigenous territories. 

Since then, we have been working to understand the flaws and improve the tool. For example we observed an average error of 4.6% in the estimation of the tree`s height with trees higher than 4 meters.  Also, we`ve adjusted the best time of the day to capture drone images, minimizing tree shadows.

In terms of carbon estimation, our results align closely with field measurements. We have increased the tree samples to have a good statistical estimation of carbon calculations. 

The AI tool requires some adjustments and calibrations to be used for mangroves and it still has to be tested in coastal communities. We have already identified the two pilot communities of El Morro and Sabana Grande due to our previous work and good relations with them. 

There are no beneficiaries so far but the info has been disseminated throughout TNC and there is interest in using it in Guatemala and Brazil and integrate it with the Blue Carbon Explorer created by the global team. 

Mangroves store five times de CO2 than land forest do and play a critical role protecting the communities from natural disasters, so protecting them is an efficient natural solution to mitigate and adapt to climate change and within carbon markets, blue carbon has a lot of potential still to be explored but there are big information gaps regarding ecosystems such as mangroves, saltmarshes and seagrasses. The world needs more accurate data on this type of ecosystems to be able to improve verification and validation of blue bonds and to monitor the fulfillment of conservation compromises.

The Nature Conservancy is aware of that information gap and has been working diligently to address it. However, as of now, the necessary information is not yet available for any country in Latin America. TNC`s initial efforts have focused on the Caribbean, but the rapidly shifting market dynamics and climate change requires a faster pace.

We need Solve because it can help us improve the AI tool and the information we have so far, scale it in Latin America and leverage a network of carbon market stakeholders (including entrepreneurs) that can use it, refine it, and create new green business opportunities focusing on the right ecosystems (regions with high carbon sequestration potential) and avoiding the mistakes done in the past with other carbon solutions.

Mangroves in the world require protection and better management and that implies that local communities value them appropriately and have sufficient incentives to care for them and keep them in good condition. Despite the significant role of the carbon market in incentivizing conservation efforts, measuring the carbon sequestration potential of certain ecosystems, such as mangroves, remain a challenge because the existing methods to do so (forest inventory or satellite images) are expensive or require certain weather conditions that are not always possible to control such as clouds, heavy rain etc-

Our solution overcomes the barriers of existing methods. It is more affordable, can cover large areas of land in a relatively short period of time, adapts easily to meteorological conditions and can provide carbon information for mangroves and other tropical forest too. We democratize access to a high-quality solution to measure blue carbon in mangrove forest. By addressing these limitations, a door opens to offer long-term incentives to communities to maintain mangroves, promoting their conservation and contributing to environmental sustainability. The methodology will soon be published in a scientific journal. 

In addition, the potential incorporation of other cutting-edge innovation that is currently being explored, enhances our solution´s potential for scalability, increasing its scope and effectiveness to address environmental challenges at a broader scale.

With our AI tool we aim to fill in the current information gap and the accurate identification of geographic challenges and opportunities within mangrove ecosystems. By doing this, we may more successfully concentrate conservation and restoration efforts in these ecosystems, opening up new possibilities, especially in the field of blue carbon.

Guided by a theory of change our solution promotes sustainability in coastal areas through strategic interventions specifically targeting mangrove conservation and restoration. Through a multifaceted approach entail protecting mangroves through designated areas, supporting other conservation efforts, monitoring, and enforcing regulations, and promoting sustainable activities. Additionally, we collaborate with coastal communities to provide training, diversify livelihoods, and involve them in mangrove protection efforts.

This approach is crucial for promoting resilience and sustainability in coastal
ecosystems. By focusing on mangrove conservation and restoration, the solution has the potential to make a significant contribution to combating climate change and protect vital habitats. Through our methodology, we can accurately assess the capacity of ecosystems to store carbon. With this information, we can identify sustainable management strategies that maximize carbon sequestration and promote ecosystem conservation. By undertaking these efforts, we help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for the impacts of climate change.

The generation of internationally recognized carbon credits is enabled by the solution. Credits that can be traded on specialized markets to fund conservation initiatives and offset carbon emissions. This provides an economic incentive to conserve coastal ecosystems and helps fund climate change mitigation projects.

Moreover, participation in carbon projects creates economic opportunities for coastal communities. Through the adoption of sustainable practices and participation in conservation efforts, communities can earn additional income and diversify their sources of income. This improves their economic situation and strengthens their commitment to environmental protection and long-term sustainable development.

As integral components of our theory of change, we have identified some intermediate results of our project, contributing to the long-term sustainability and resilience of coastal ecosystems. These include the approval of the National Mangrove Action Plan and restoration guidelines, along with the prioritization of 10,000 hectares for mangrove conservation.

Building upon these achievements, TNC coastal marine strategy is expected to yield by 2025, 250,000 hectares of restored mangrove.

We anticipate that the protection of mangroves, long-term environmental sustainability, and the welfare of coastal communities will all be significantly improved by these concerted efforts.

Our final goal is to protect and restore mangroves which are a key ecosystem and the way we expect to be able to do this is by encouraging and empowering coastal communities and decision makers to protect their mangroves with the most accurate information possible and the right economic incentives.

Some KPIs that will serve as indicators of progress towards the achievement of objectives are: 

In the shot term

• Obtain accurate and consistent data on tree carbon estimates using AI tool vs. field measurements

In the medium/long term:

• Increased number of people engaged in the process. These might be measured through the number of times the tool is accessed and used by the community and/or decision makers, the frequency with which the data provided is consulted, as well as the diversity of users interacting with the tool. 
• The community's technical proficiency and expertise in using the tool's associated technology, as well as its capacity to efficiently analyze and utilize the data acquired. 
• Another important consideration is the degree of community satisfaction and feedback regarding the tool's efficacy and usefulness. 
• Improvements in income due to improvements in ecosystem health or carbon bonds.

It is a tool that employs a deep learning algorithm trained to analyze drone imagery and elevation models (DTM and DSM) to accurately capture topographical details. It uses RGB drone images with a spatial resolution of 3 cm that provides detailed visual data.

The AI tool is based on easily accessible software packages such as H2O and Deep Forest but adjusted and calibrated by The Nature Conservancy Ecuador for tropical rainforest. Also, to support data with different programming languages we used Jupyter Notebook.

Scalability and accessibility are ensured through a dedicated web server, initially from Amazon but eventually from TNC.

Full time staff : 6 people from The Nature Conservancy Ecuador

Contractors: 3 consultants. Their main role is to help with technical issues of the tool, operate and train on drones and make in the field measurements while the tool gets fully calibrated.

We have been working on it for the last 8 months now, and for the

agroforestry systems we are about to complete it within the upcoming months. We are also hoping for a scientific publication about it in the next 4 months.

During the first phase that lasted 5 months, we prepared the conceptual design and started the implementation which included: data collection/drone flights, data processing, model fitting and training, validation and evaluation results.

The second phase started 2 months ago and has been about improving the tree samples for comparison, recalibrating the model and evaluating and validating the results.

At The Nature Conservancy, we are firmly committed to promoting diversity within our workforce and among the individuals and organizations we work with. 

Embracing diversity is one of our five guiding principles. We recognize that the leadership and contributions of people from different backgrounds, beliefs, and cultures - including those of all ages, genders, religions, sexual orientations, political beliefs, abilities, and ethnicities - are essential to advancing our mission of protecting the lands and waters that support all life.

Environmental hazards affect people of all backgrounds, ideologies, and customs around the world. A truly diverse team can provide the rich mix of backgrounds, ideas and perspectives needed to make a meaningful difference.

In our testing process of the tool in agroforestry systems we activily involved the local communities of Napa and Pastaza, especially the 4 kichwa communities where the drones got the images because we expect them to be the ones doing the monitoring in the long term and being one of the beneficiaries of the information gathered. 

We appreciated, and will keep doing so, the community feedback regarding drone use and the interpretation of the results as part of our commitment to guaranteeing a diversity of perspectives and opportunities. We are dedicated to actively incorporating these perspectives into our approach.

The information provided by our free, open-source AI tool generates a positive impact to different actors.  

Carbon project developers and verification entities can benefit by having access to information on carbon stock in mangroves in a simpler, cost- effective way by making blue carbon credits more accessible and governments can make better informed decisions and allocate public resources effectively.

Local communities can benefit by using the information to ensure they receive proper economic incentive for the protection and restoration of the mangroves (as a percentage of the blue carbon credits that this ecosystem can generate) and by monitoring threats. Additionally, improved mangrove health boosts productivity in economic activities they already develop like fishing, oyster catching and tourism and makes them more resilient to climate change protecting their coasts.   Communities can be empowered to monitor mangroves using drones and carbon data, facilitated by TNC. In Ecuador, the “Custodians of the mangrove” can get a new significance and return for their management, monitoring, reporting and productive activities.

As a non-profit organization The Nature Conservancy`s primary goal is to protect and conserve the environment. However, funding is needed to cover the costs of developing the prototype tool. Given the common need of different actors both public and private, for improved data and quality carbon credits to mitigate their emissions, we believe there´s potential interest from different stakeholders to fund the solution while it is fully developed, improved and adjusted for mangroves. Support may come from grants, contributions, sponsorships, and partnerships with businesses, governments, and other organizations.

In the medium and long term, we expect these public and private actors involved in adaptation and mitigation efforts, as well as stakeholders in the blue carbon market, to fund and invest in the tool´s enhancement. This is particularly relevant due to the rapid expansion of the carbon market, driven by the requirements of the Paris Agreement and its Article 6. As the Agreement encourages international cooperation and the use of market-based mechanisms to support climate action, there's an increasing demand for cost-effective solutions such as this one.