Global University System (GUS)

Paris climate pact was a historical success with many nations’ pledges to reduce carbon emissions and global warming.  However, most nations' need to significantly improve their pledges require rigorous simulation studies (*), to meet Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).  This will require regular and transparent global cooperation with collective responsibilities in a democratic fashion.  We plan to achieve this cooperation as interlinking the sector models for each of the “Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)” with our patent-pending distributed ledger technology of blockchain to produce a  country model for each of the ECOWAS countries. Then we interlink those individual countries’ comprehensive SDGs simulation models together through broadband Internet, to form the “Electronic African Union” and eventually the “Electronic United Nations (e-UN).”  The ultimate education goal is “HOW TO PREPARE FOR THE EMERGENCE OF SOCIETY WITH NO GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION BY 2050.”

(*) “integrated SDG” model of Millennium Institute <http://www.isdgs.org/#!documentation/kri3x>

Einstein once said "Imagination is more important than Knowledge." Artificial Intelligence (AI) handles knowledge and simulation does imagination for creativity. Although the AI is current vogue, simulation would become proliferated. 

We have to rely on expert on each of subject we deal. This is the essence of future Distributed Simulation. The key technology to succeed this is the establishment of interlinkage schemes among distributed simulation models scattered around the broadband Internet.  For this purpose, we attempt to forge ahead to establish it with the use of distributed ledger technology of blockchain -- though it would be limited in its initial stage to the continuous system simulation.

The application of this new interlinkage technology are;

(a) Among sector models of the UN/SDGs,

(b) Among country models, e.g., Electronic ECOWAS, Electronic African Union, and eventually Electronic United Nations, etc.

Furthermore, this new distributed simulation technology can be applied in many other fields, e.g., Construction of simulator/trainer of chemical plants, as connecting models of distillation columns, pumps, boilers, etc. -- Dr. Utsumi once led a group of engineers to construct simulator/trainer for ethylene plant at the Stone & Webster Engineering Company in Boston in later 1960s.

We will apply system dynamics methodology for promoting rational, scientific, systemic thinking for the policy analysis and decision-making on the UN/SDGs.

We will ask each of our GUSs (e.g., GUS/Nigeria, GUS/Ghana, etc.) to form their coalition with higher educational and healthcare institutions in their countries.  They will form expert task teams to construct their model (assuring their model compared with "Limit to The Growth (LOTG)" approach), which will then be interlinked together to form a comprehensive country model, which will then be interlinked together with our patent-pending distributed ledger technology of blockchain to form the Electronic ECOWAS, Electronic Africa Union, and eventually the Electronic United Nations (eUN).

These models will be operated repetitively with real-time data so that they will become simulator/trainer -- President Obama once made an analogy between the policy-decision-making of national economy with the maneuvering of large oil tanker entering narrow New York Harbor.  Dr. Utsumi once led a group of engineers at the Stone & Webster Engineering Company in Boston to construct a simulator/trainer of ethylene plant.

Our ultimate goal is to construct a situation room at the United Nations showing graphical results of policy-making to discuss on the global peace-making along with the UN/SDGs.

Reference: Uploaded following file: <2021-02-07 CSU/Chico_V5_NSF Grant> Titled: "PLANNING WORKSHOP ON DISTRIBUTED DECISION-MAKING FOR UN/SDGs"

Model-Based Quantitative Simulation:

      The iSDG Model (References (3), (9), (10), (11) and Section 7 of this reference) is intended as an interactive learning platform, giving policymakers and planners the opportunity to learn and build intuition through virtual experiments or “what-if” scenarios within the complex Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) system.  It is expected that this mode of experiential learning will help policymakers identify trade-offs, synergies, and high leverage intervention points that will inform the consequential effects of their policy decisions in graphical format as time progresses.

      The iSDG Model contains 30 interlinked model sectors: 10 social sectors, 10 economic sectors, and 10 environmental sectors distributed within the three core dimensions of sustainability: society, economy, and environment.  The model maps key feedback loops running between and within sectors as well as nonlinear relationships and time lags that generate the complex systemic behaviors characteristic of interactions between SDGs.  Unlike static SDG indicators databases and indexes that provide a measure of where a country is, the iSDG Model focuses on the interactions within the SDG system to reveal the best paths and progression towards achieving the SDGs. Millennium Institute in cooperation with content experts (such as Mayo Clinic, Utah Valley University, Shinshu University, Global University System, etc.) will adapt the T21/iSDG Model parameters and logic to reflect realities of cause-and-effect, interlinkages, and impacts across SDGs, e.g., energy, pollution, climate change, public health, sustainability, infrastructure, economic growth, etc., in remote, rural, and urban communities in various countries.

      We will train young students, workers, and government officers on the use and interpretation of results from the simulation iSDG Model.  The objectives for this training will be improved decision making on policies to lower carbon emissions, mitigation of climate change with increased energy efficiency and use of renewable energy for power generation and transport, and evaluation of impacts on all SDGs interlinked to clean energy (e.g., e-healthcare, e-learning, jobs, etc.) in remote rural areas.             

      We will train the users of the iSDG Model how to assess various scenarios for the short-term and longer-term impact of renewable energy. Specifically, we will teach the users of the Nigeria iSDG Model, how to develop “what if” scenarios to assess the impact from solar, wind, biomass, other renewable resources gradually replacing diesel, gasoline, natural gas or other carbon-based fuels in power generation, heating, lighting, cooking, and transport systems at existing and new sites in Nigeria from 2010 to 2030.  The users of Nigeria’s iSDG Model will learn how to evaluate: changing oil/gas production, energy technology & efficiency, reducing carbon emissions, mitigating climate change & improving the environment, clean water availability, population growth, e-healthcare & public health, rural & urban infrastructure, jobs & economic growth, e-learning education & vocational training, personal income, capital investment, gender equality, and other social, economic, and environmental Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which are interlinked to Clean Energy (SDG #7).

References:

(1) INAF U4420: Oil, Rights and Development – renamed to Human Rights and Humanitarian Policy (HRHP)  <http://bulletin.columbia.edu/sipa/concentrations/hrhp/#facultytext>

(2) "Discordia," A simulation of the impact of an oil discovery on a West-African nation (561 MB)

NOTE: Some web sites hereunder with <http://gu.friends-partners.org.......> are not working due to the malfunction of our web site.

<http://gu.friends-partners.org/Global_University/Global%20University%20System/Reference_web_sites_Materials/VII.%20Global%20Socio-Economic-Energy-Environment%20Development%20(GSEEED)%20Project%20=%20Global%20Early%20Warning%20System%20(GEWS)/Discordia-Tot>

(3) Guide to Navigating the T21-ˇPCM-ˇNigeria AAP Model and “integrated SDG” (iSDG) model of the Millennium Institute <http://www.isdgs.org/#!documentation/kri3x>

(4) T, Varis, T. Utsumi, and B. Klemm, “Global Peace Through the  Global University System”

<http://gu.friends-partners.org/Global_University/Global%20University%20System/ UNESCO_Chair_Book/Bk_outline-D13.html>

(5) Creating Electronic United Nations (eUN)

<http://stisolutions4sdgs.globalinnovationexchange.org/innovations/creating-electronic-united-nations-eun>

(6) WHO Simulation Exercise Manual (February 2017)

<https://extranet.who.int/iris/restricted/bitstream/handle/10665/254741/WHO-WHE-CPI-2017.10-eng.pdf;jsessionid=0A679B3BBB5C4B2D12AB9F48E8DC364B?sequence =1> 

(7) Utsumi, T., “Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming,” <http://gu.friends-partners.org/Global_University/Global%20University%20System/UNESCO_Chair_Book/Manuscripts/Part_IV_Global_Collaboration/Utsumi,%20Tak/GCEPG_D10_Web/GCEPG_D10.htm> 

(8) UNESCO-Japan Prize on Education for Sustainable Development <https://en.unesco.org/prize-esd> 

(9) “integrated Sustainable Development Goals (iSDG)” Model http://www.isdgs.org/#!documentation/kri3x 

(10) Nine-minute Video on You-Tube on the iSDG Model: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc9rBwtrV00 

(11) United Nations Sustainable Development Goals: http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/

(12) Electronic ECOWAS for Decision-Making with Distributed Simulation (December 3, 2016) 

(13) “Systemic Decision-Making for SDGs with Distributed Simulation,” Presented by team members of Global University System in the USA (GUS/USA) at the SDG Learning workshop during the 2018 High-level Political Forum on SDG sustainable Development Goals at the UN/HQ in NYC on July 11, 2018 http://tiny.cc/kep8uy

(14) Comparison of system dynamics software https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_system_dynamics_software

(15) Rayner, Geof and Tim Lang, “Ecological Public Health: Reshaping the Conditions for Good Health,” Routledge, 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017; ISBN: 978-1-84407-831-8 (hbk)

(16) “integrated Sustainable Development Goals (iSDG)” Model <http://www.isdgs.org/#!documentation/kri3x>

(17) Future of Global Interdependence (FUGI) Model <FUGI global model copy.pdf>

Most nations need to improve their pledges made for Paris climate pact require rigorous simulation studies to meet their SDGs.  This will require global cooperation with collective and shared responsibilities.  We plan to achieve this as interlinking the sector models of the SDGs with distributed ledger of blockchain to produce a single country model for ECOWAS countries.  We will interlink those individual countries’ comprehensive models together through Internet to form “Electronic ECOWAS” and eventually “Electronic United Nations.”  The ultimate education goal is “HOW TO PREPARE FOR THE EMERGENCE OF SOCIETY WITH NO GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION BY 2050.”

Prof. Forrester, the initiator of the System Dynamics (SD) at the MIT told Dr. Utsumi that there are 2 aspects of SD; (a) forecasting and (b) understanding of intricacies among various phenomenon.

Dr. G. O. Barny took the former to establish the Millennium Institute (MI) with a help of President Carter.  The MI has constructed more than 43 country simulation models assisting their governments.

Dr. Utsumi took the latter to lead to global peace gaming with similar approach of the war gaming at Pentagon. For this end, he initiated globalization of Internet after encountering its prototype DARPANET at the International Computer Communication Conference in Washington, DC in October, 1972. 

He then initiated the deregulation of Japanese telecommunication policies for the use of email (with the help of the Commerce Secretary Malcom Baldridge), which led to the proliferation of smart phone with VOIP, thus benefitting more than 5 billions people nowadays.

When Dr. Utsumi served General Chairman of the Summer Computer Simulation Conference with 800 attendees at Sheraton Hotel in Boston in July 1971, he invited the group of researchers on the "Limits of the Growth (LOTG)" project of the Cub of Rome at the MIT/Sloan School of Management.  During their presentations, Dr. Utsumi noticed there were no Japanese researchers.  Since he came from Japan, he thought Japan should be included, because it is a part of the globe. This is the initiation of distributed simulation of our project.

This approach also corrected deficit of the LOTG as respecting and including the national boundaries, and of course, improving the accuracy of the simulation.

This distributed simulation is the new and most advanced field, e.g., we will have task-force teams for each of SDGs segment who will construct their models, each of them will then be interlinked to form their country's comprehensive model.  Those country models will then be interlinked together with our patent-pending technology, to form Electronic African Union and eventually Electronic United Nations.

Those distributed models will be resided in inexpensive laptops scattered around the world and will be interlinked through broadband Internet -- as constructing the so-called virtual Beowulf super computer in the global scale.

We initiated the globalization of Internet in October 1972, created GUS with World Bank fund in 1999, and interlinked GLORIAD (broadband Internet connecting more than 100 higher educational and healthcare institutions in northern hemisphere) with ACE ($700 million from EU) which circumvent around Africa.

Current: 

# of people:      1 to 3 

#  of countries:    5

Total = 3 x 5 = 15

One year:

# of people:      5 to 12 

#  of countries:    10

Total = 12 x 10 = 120

Five year:

# of people:      12 to 120 

#  of countries:    20

Total = 120 x 20 = 2400

Those people are mostly graduate students and faculty members of GUS in those countries.

The size of population they will serve cannot be figure out at this stage of our project.

1. How many countries joined with GUS.

2. How many higher educational and healthcare institutions joined with their country's GUS.

3. How many member institutions in each of those GUS in their country.

4. How much funds each of the GUS coalition member institutions raised their funds for their activities.

5. How many students at each of their coalition member institutions.

6. How many virtual/on-line courses at each of coalition member institutions.

Full-time:                          3

Part-time:                         10

Others:                              20

Professor Tapio Varis at the University of Tampere in Finland arranged the UNESCO/Unitwin/Networking/Chair Program to make our GUS as part of it.  We then ask our colleagues in Africa/ECOWAS countries to form a coalition of higher educational and healthcare institutions which will become GUS of their countries, calling them as GUS/Nigeria, GUS/Ghana, etc.

They will form expert task teams for each of UN/SDGs segment to construct their System Dynamic simulation models, which will then be interlinked through broadband Internet with the use of our Patent-pending interlinkage scheme utilizing the distributed ledger technology of blockchain to form their country's comprehensive simulation model.

This model will be executed repetitively to become simulator/ trainer with the access to real time data, and be a part of situation room in their governmental offices to assist policy analysis and decision-making by government officers and aspiring future leaders. The model would also be accessed by laptops and smartphones enabling wide use of it simulator/trainer with real time data.

As mentioned elsewhere, the Millennium Institute, our main collaborator, is the world renowned think-tank specializing on the use of system dynamics.

Mayo Clinic is the world largest hospital system in Minneapolis which will work with us with their Global Ecological Public Health system.

Prof. Huntsinger of California State University in Chico was the President of the International Society for Modeling and Simulation, the most prestigious professional society on simulation.

Dr. Utsumi contributed on the development of analog and hybrid computers, and created and named Summer Computer Simulation Conference.

Our project is to promote rational, scientific and systemic thinking for the policy-analysis and decision-making on the UN/SDGs among  young governmental officers, scholars in educational fields, and young law-making representatives, aspiring future leaders with the use of simulator/trainer -- even with smartphones.

The situation room could have many large-screen displays showing graphically the consequential results of any decision-making for group discussions during peace gaming -- on-site or remotely via webinar over Internet.

Members of GUS would display the consequential effects of their decision made graphically on large display and also showing ripple effect of those decisions along the system dynamics diagram so that bottle-neck trouble spots can easily be located. This will definitely indicate the power of scientific rational approach for any decision-making leading justifiable conflict resolution on the UN/SDGs, for example, those which would be encountered during the budget allocation or close of shops and theaters, etc., due to the lockdowns of pandemics, etc.

We will conduct planning workshops at the California State University in Chico and Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN as inviting experts on various SDGs segments to discuss their formation of expert/task team for their construction of SDGs segment models.

One time before, MIT students helped to create the "Law of Sea" at the United Nations as helping representatives from small-island countries. Our project could be the outgrowth of their activities with modern technologies.

The major objective of our project is to promote rational, scientific and systemic thinking for policy-analysis and decision-makings, which leads to the global peace-gaming.

The application is the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

We chose System Dynamics methodology which was initiated by Professor Jay W. Forrester at the MIT/Sloan School of Management. Dr. Utsumi took his course in late 1960s.

Since early 1960s, he contributed to the development of computer simulation with repetitive analog computer, hybrid computer (before MIT used it for lunar landing real-time simulation), creating the Summer Computer Simulation Conference of the major professional society.

He pioneered on the globalization of Internet and deregulation of its use for email and smartphones, benefitting more than 5 billions people.

He also arranged the interconnection of GLORIAD with the Africa Connect to Europe (ACE). 

He created Global University System, which was arranged to be a part of the UNESCO/Unitwin/Networking/Chair Program.

Ultimately, we wish to make this eUN to serve for the global peace gaming as similar to the war gaming of the Pentagon, as solving conflicts among nations which might be caused with the development of specific segments of the UN/SDGs.  This is to enact similar approach made by MIT students for the enactment of the "Law of Sea" in 1970s, but now with modern technologies.

Although we urgently need colleagues working in those areas, we have to raise funds to cover their costs.

We would welcome the involvement of MIT faculty, graduate students and Solve Members.

We would like to have involvement of IBM in blockchain field which may be expanded their involvement of constructing (a) real-time data gathering center in participating municipalities, (b) mission center along with it including simulator/trainer -- IBM once constructed such a center with $16 million for Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.