Vaccine Hesitancy and Disinformation

With the goal of ameliorating the harm disinformation is causing, educating the public around specific pieces of mis/disinformation over the course of a year, and simultaneously educating the public around the dangers and hallmarks of mis/disinformation. While we intend to tackle all Covid-19 related mis and disinformation, we do so with a specific focus on educating around the vaccine and ensuring that vaccine hesitancy is addressed. 

The objective of this project is to fully establish a dedicated unit within the CABC to identify, analyse, track, and report on mis and disinformation around Covid-19 and especially around vaccine hesitancy. 

We note that this unit will provide the building blocks that will allow us to seek further funding to include content generation, intervention in narratives and eventually a roll out on a pan African basis across 20 countries.  

Mis and disinformation around Covid-19, along with vaccine hesitancy and vaccine nationalism have grown around the world.

While science has charted new territory in developing effective vaccines at record speed, conspiracy theories have exploded under Covid-19 and global lockdowns, state led anti-vaccine disinformation has been ramped up and anti-vaxxers have been emboldened and strengthened. 

Amidst this chaos, moderate voices have been drowned out, societies are becoming increasingly radicalised and polarised, and reasonable concerns around the vaccine are being ignored. 

Over the next few years, there can be little doubt that countries who vaccinate the highest possible percentage of their citizens will return to normal sooner, will save substantial numbers of their citizens from sickness and death, will be able to protect and build on their healthcare systems and will also hold considerable economic, political and social advantages over other nations.  There is also a global imperative to achieve global herd immunity, and to avoid the development of variants in under vaccinated countries.

Project Countering Covid-19 Disinformation Africa will draw on advanced social media analytics, as well as academic research and subject expert matter inputs, to develop insights from which compelling, affective content will be produced and widely disseminated online across sub-Saharan Africa to; (1) help promote behavioural change to mitigate against the spread of Covid-19, more specifically by (2) identifying and countering mis/disinformation relating to Covid-19. To this end, we will leverage our relationships with industry (i.e. media, advertising) to produce high quality content and will seek out co-funding to grow the reach and focus areas of the project.

We do so with a specific focus generating insight and data that could fuel an extension of this project that would look more closely at educating around the vaccine and ensuring that vaccine hesitancy is addressed. 

We will use a range of established media partners to disseminate this information – through bespoke, syndicated and press release communication. We will also publish on our websites and social channels, share material with partner organisations and other organisations in the field, and to the government where appropriate. 

The primary target is young, working-age people who will continue commuting, studying, working and recreating during the pandemic. The intervention is a targeted messaging campaign that leverages advanced social media analytics to counter Covid-19 mis/dis-information to help bring about the broader behavioural change that is required for the protection of society as a whole. 

Unlike traditional media outlet’s attempts at blanket messaging, typically government funded, our intervention will be informed by insights gleaned from advanced social media and network analytics, rigorous academic research on motivations for sharing health disinformation in this age segment (particularly through interviews and focus groups), in addition to civil society and expert opinion specific. The targeted segment will effectively act as a catalyst for broader societal behavioural change due to their high smart phone penetration rates. 

By identifying and dialoguing with social media influencers in this segment we will support them in amplifying protagonist messaging that is based on reliable, credible information, and is affective, compelling and engaging at the same time. 

By targeting social media influencers in this segment across multiple platforms, alongside traditional media, we can guarantee widespread circulation within a broader ecosystem that can amplify protagonist Covid-19 messaging beyond this segment itself. 

Note that we define misinformation as untruthful material that is spread benignly (without malicious intent) and disinformation as malign, deliberate falsehood. Of course, the two interact, and disinformation is often spread benignly as misinformation. While no malicious intent lies behind it, misinformation is as dangerous as disinformation, and throughout all our programmes we give much attention to educating people around how to recognise mis and disinformation. 

Through daily engagement with mis and disinformation, the CABC has noted co-ordinated narrative assaults in the social media ecosystem. Well considered, well resourced, consistent and widespread responses are required to counter these waves. 

Amidst this chaos, moderate voices have been drowned out, societies are becoming increasingly radicalised and polarised, and reasonable concerns around the vaccine are being ignored.

Over the next few years, there can be little doubt that countries who vaccinate the highest possible percentage of their citizens will return to normal sooner, will save substantial numbers of their citizens from sickness and death, will be able to protect and build on their healthcare systems and will also hold considerable economic, political and social advantages over other nations. 

In this context, a very recent IPSOS study (17-20 December 2020) found that those likely to get vaccinated in South Africa had dropped by 15%, to only 53% of South Africans polled.  Given that 70-80%  vaccination rates are necessary for herd immunity, and that mandating vaccination would be very politically and socially divisive, this presents a massive challenge to our public health efforts.

One of the major contributors to this is both misinformation and co-ordinated disinformation campaigns within the digital space. 

In addition, personal agency measures such as mask wearing, social distancing, hand washing/sanitising, symptom checking and reporting have not been sufficiently adhered to, resulting in a second wave of Covid-19 that threatens to engulf our health care system. Prominent conservative political parties have exacerbated compliance by rallying their base through resistance to lockdown protocols, often under the guise of protecting businesses.

The CABC has high level expertise in advanced social media analytics, AI, psychology, dialogue mechanisms at scale and a wide range of media partners to identify, report on and counter misinformation, disinformation, narrative manipulation, organised interference and associated narratives that threaten the uptake of a Covid-19 vaccine within the digital space. Via a set of tested and honed methodologies the CABC is also able to intervene in problematic narratives, especially where mis and information are clearly present.

In addition, qualitative research insights (gathered through digital in-depth interviews) will be used to augment insights gleaned from social media-based analytics. These interviews will be conducted by a CABC partner which has deep experience in qualitative research, insight gathering and action-based recommendations.

We stress that this is a rapidly evolving and metastasising space, and that our analytics and methods are suited to working effectively in an environment in which the only constant is change. 

However, we have identified eight areas of immediate concern that require immediate and consistent action. 1)Conspiracy Theories 2)Media and Defence of Truth 3) Defence of Science 4) Vaccine Explanation 5) Vaccine Concerns 6) Religious and Equity Concerns 7) Non-pharmaceutical Interventions 8) An optimistic tomorrow

The challenge of countering online mis/disinformation during Covid-19 extends globally. Developed countries have been hamstrung by online social media mis/disinformation and conspiracy theories pertaining to Covid-19. Safeguarding public health through widespread vaccination and adhering to Covid-19 protocols is key to restoring the economic and social life that underpins social cohesion and preventing further waves of infections/deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Fostering resilience to Covid-19 disinformation by countering online narratives that undermine recovery efforts and threaten public health. While intending to tackle all Covid-19 related mis/disinformation, we specifically focus on educating around the vaccine and ensuring that vaccine hesitancy is addressed. 

During 2020, the CABC had funding for a unit that worked on mis and disinformation around Covid-19. As socially divisive issues like xenophobia grew, our focus expanded to socially divisive rhetoric. In 2021, our existing funding is focused more on our Defending Democracy project, which aims to identify, report on and intervene in social divisive narratives through citizen activism and counter narrative work.

However, mis and disinformation around Covid-19, along with vaccine hesitancy and vaccine nationalism have grown around the world – and given this, our Covid-19 based work is severely underfunded. 

While science has charted new territory in developing effective vaccines at record speed, conspiracy theories have exploded under Covid-19 and global lockdowns, state led anti-vaccine disinformation has been ramped up and anti-vaxxers have been emboldened and strengthened. 

Our solution is unique as it integrates across six key organisational capabilities to identify, track, analyse and counter online mis/disinformation and coordinated narrative manipulation (i.e. social media research and analytics, content strategy and creation, communications, dialoguing, technology development and advanced analytics, and academic research). We integrate these capabilities to counter harmful online narratives by leveraging social media messaging and dialoguing, by amplifying our reach through mainstream media partners, trusted civil society organisations, and decision-makers - broader ‘ecosystem’. Reaching millions of people through deploying this combination of capabilities over the past year alone. This integration requires deep expertise, experience and robust methodologies.

CABC directly counters online mis/disinformation as opposed to merely fact-checking. Combining academic rigour and understanding, with ‘coalface’ interventions in socially divisive digital narratives. Building an academic research unit that interacts closely with the action-oriented work. This sets us apart in respect of reliability of theory and practice. We intend to make our case studies, learning, know-how, methodologies, technology platforms and tools open source, to help establish similar organisations across the world. 

Establishing a cohort of academic researchers working closely with Associate Professor Camaren Peter and Professor Herman Wasserman (Senior Research Associateship CABC).

We are not just fact-checkers, we intervene in multi-disciplinary way using an integration of different capabilities to work through a broader ecosystem. Working with a range of established partners to disseminate information including Media Monitoring Africa, Cambridge African network, Government. Through Code4Africa and African Alliance, we have access to 70+ strong PanAfrican network of media outlets.

Our work is inherently scalable. Our SA projects already engage millions of people through the media. Our interventions directly engage tens of thousands of people.

For this project, we will build in a continuous monitoring component that enables us to obtain deeper insights into the segment and what motivates their social media presences. Building on this learning we will become more effective at targeting and recruiting this segment. The pilot project funded by Impact Amplifier will give us a head start in understanding what works and what doesn’t in respect of interventions. In year one the main goal will be to consolidate insights, networks and secure a Pan-African presence.

We also seek to leverage our partnership with Code4Africa, who have an extensive African network of analysts and journalists working in different contexts, to strengthen our local interventions over the project (year 2 and 3). Drawing on our Cambridge partnership to leverage an extensive African network of epidemiologists and public health experts to refine and strengthen our interventions over the project. This is particularly important as sensitivity to local context is key to success in different regions.

Core output of project is high impact online campaign to counter Covid-19 disinformation across the continent, leveraging advanced social media and network analyses, alongside academic research and expert opinion to support countering Covid-19 disinformation. By working with a segment to amplify the spread of credible information beyond their age group, into the offline world (friends, co-workers, families, communities) we hope to create medium to long-term impact on how health-related online information is vetted and consumed in broader society. 

Measuring our M&E processes through the narratives that we have impact on. There are metrics on social media that we  measure. Intention to solidify what we are doing locally through our democracy project expanding to a Pan-African basis to multiple organisations through the vaccine hesitancy project and then leverage into global partnerships that start to enable a global way of working around these issues like mis/disinformation etc.

Measuring against our theory of change and have established rebuttal and intervention capabilities. Developing a systematic procedure for quantifying the impact that a social media intervention has on a network of users involved in a conversation. Applying modern techniques derived from epidemiology to calculate the rate which a particular piece of content spreads within a network. By deriving a rate of replication, and being able to map the pathway that such content takes through the network, offering a dynamic way of both quantifying the scale of impact on a conversation and visualising it. 

Am to achieve: (1) high volume and reach of social media traffic with respect to the creative content we disseminate to counter vaccine hesitancy and foster pro-vaccine sentiment,(2) significant re-circulation of online content by the targeted segment (key SM influencers), (3) traditional media circulation brokered through engagement with media outlets (newspapers, radio, television) (4) data and learning that underpins our ability to adapt and improve strategies/methods.

Impact: Limit the growth of radicalised socio-political movements; the emergence of healthier online public discourse and engagement; a reduction in social prejudice and discrimination.

26 staff (10 full time and 16 Contractors)- 

A diverse, highly experienced multidisciplinary team that possesses deep expertise in all the key focus areas we work in and covers a wide range of skills, including academia, technology, research and analytics, dialogue facilitation, conflict mediation, psychology, communication, and marketing and advertising.

The CABC has attracted a range of expert skills to the organisation. We are a highly respected, multi-disciplinary team of academics, social change activists, technology specialists, communications experts and content makers.

CABC is a non-profit, public benefit organisation based at UCTs Graduate School of Business and incubated by the Allan Gray Centre for Values-Based Leadership. We have established an internship and fellowship programme that draws in students from the Graduate School of Business’s MBA and MPhil programmes who gain invaluable work experience and skills while contributing to the organisation’s projects. 

The CABC has high level expertise in advanced social media analytics, AI, psychology, dialogue mechanisms at scale and a wide range of media partners to identify, report on and counter misinformation, disinformation, narrative manipulation, organised interference and associated narratives that threaten the uptake of a Covid-19 vaccine within the digital space. 

It has also secured academic, civil society and government partnerships that enable CABC to create impact in a variety of thematic areas such as xenophobia, racism, public health, gender-based violence and so forth.

Via a set of tested and honed methodologies the CABC is also able to intervene in problematic narratives, especially where mis and information are clearly present.

The CABC has attracted a range of capabilities to the organisation from research and analytics to media, marketing and operational experts from diverse backgrounds. We are finalising recruitment processes for a new head of operations that is not only based in skill but equity too. Our work is focused on social cohesion and change, and we intend to role model this in our organisation structures. We have run workshops and invested in developing leadership and organisational skills to create a sense of teamwork and staff commitment. We have put strong HR systems and policies in place, and established individual key focus areas to empower staff to continue learning, developing and innovating proactively. We are setting up an internal coaching system, as well as 360 degree reviews. Project strategies and operational plans are in place. We are currently going through a Theory of Change and M&E process (with Dugan Fraser) to align strategic goals with activities and impacts, and our organisational strategy will be completed as part of this process.  This will then feed into well defined marketing and fundraising strategies. 

In our short existence, CABC has gained a great deal of knowledge into how to identify narrative manipulation and counter it. Our main goal is to expand our reach into a variety of conversations (e.g. climate change denialism, sustainability oriented solutions, gender and youth, and where shifting narratives is needed) and to scale up our operations across Sub-Saharan Africa in particular. To this end, we have invested in up skilling staff and refocused staff to key projects for our core funding.

Solve would enable CABC to become a global leader in this space over the next 3 years and develop a proper pan-African network upon which we can build to establish global reach. It will help us establish and demonstrate our capability to undertake large campaigns across a variety of thematic areas. The funding will also enable us to conduct in-depth social media and network analytics and improve our data-analytics strategy, particularly to bring down costs. Last, working in different regions where different contextual specificities present will enable us to improve and refine how we deal with differing political contexts and social identities.

Focused more on our funded Defending Democracy and Academic projects, which aim to identify, report on and intervene in social divisive narratives through citizen activism and counter narrative work. Similar processes will be conducted in the Covid-19 Vaccine hesitancy and mis/disinformation project once funding is obtained. 

Possible challenges include:

1. The organisation requires a combination of diverse skills. To address this our Exco brings a specific set of capabilities to the organization - academic, social conflict mediation and dialogue, social media strategy and engagement, technology, advertising/content, communications/media, operational and strategic skills are all housed in Exco. We are going through a process of defining and distributing these capabilities through the organization and into the project teams.

2. The CABC can address a range of different themes and topics using its approach, and its  methodology can be applied to a variety of causes. The challenge is to ensure expert engagement in each. To address this we partner with relevant expert bodies/organisations.

3. Political decision-making is hamstrung by the need to satisfy a broad range of interests, all of which are driven by different narratives, many of them on social media. So by necessity, we are involved in some politically charged narratives. In this context, when making decisions, we hold to our sole purpose, which is underpinned by supporting constitutionality and upholding the basic values that South African share. This is also aligned with working against social division, allowing for  more coordinated decision-making and action.

4. We are building an organisation that has the potential to wield influence - so who is governing and how do we ensure that decisions are made with good oversight? Here we emphasise openness, transparency and support of democratic freedoms in our deliberations. Structurally, we meet twice a week as an executive to ensure proper deliberation over key decisions that we make as an organisation, where a highly experienced and diverse executive plays a role as a steering committee. This operational oversight is critical, as there is a limit to the extent to which the Board may intervene in operational issues. Over and above that, constituting an experienced and powerful board that can be trusted with steering CABC is a priority; our current board members are stepping down to make way for these changes and we are actively seeking new board members.

We seek to partner with organisations that can elevate CABC's brand as experts in the mis/disinformation space globally. Partnerships for funding, research, expertise, or delivery would all add value. The success of our work depends on partnerships and collaboration with those who share our values. Through collaboration we learn, share expertise and grow together. We find strength in the sum of our knowledge, practices and diverse experiences.

Examples include:

Stanford Internet Observatory - they are already in the global digital human rights space and have conducted extensive work into disinformation in Africa.

University of Cambridge -We already partner but would love to grow this, particularly to leverage the Africa-wide network of public health experts on the continent.

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation - We are in continual conversations and have submitted a funding proposal.

Google – We have an indirect relationship through Impact Amplifier but are hoping to build on this, particularly as Google has extensive impact on how information is disseminated around the world.

Twitter – We are keen to establish relations with Twitter, particularly around coordinated disinformation campaigns that seek to destabilise nation states.

CABC would love to expand our projects into the US as this work is not restricted to any specific country or population.

CABC has been working on GBV projects too... a crisis in the lives of women, children and men. Using research and advanced social media analytics, we are able to gain unique, real-time insights into misogyny and gender-based violence. These insights are used to develop and drive a concert of innovative interventions, which address the complexity of this issue. The overarching objective for this project is to reduce and eliminate misogyny and gender-based violence through using a blend of advanced social media analytics and research, media attention, support, psychology, engagement and dialogue.  

The heCareZA experiment in 2020 substantiated the assumptions and theory, laid the foundation and built scaffolding that is catalysing a movement of men by upskilling and activating them to take action and end the violence. Through facilitating dialogue at scale, we are shifting the narrative in this space and promoting healing. This project has the power to reach and hold millions of men in process across South Africa at an unprecedented scale and to positively change the misogyny narrative. heCareZA is an innovative initiative and through our initial experimentations, we have developed tools, methodologies and mechanisms that have achieved compelling results. With additional funding, we aim to further develop and upscale the project while deploying additional interventions for increased impact. The intention is to extend the project’s reach through sectoral engagement. In addition to this, a content repository and public femicide monitor will be developed to enhance the efficacy of responses to outbreaks of femicides in various geographical locations. 

To support the survivors of GBV, the project design will be replicated and expanded on to reach millions of women across South Africa through sheCareZA. sheCareZA intends to create a movement of women who share their experiences and support survivors while also reducing GBV.

Our Purpose

1)To harness factual, and evidence-based social media information that form the foundation of our work.
2)To combat online misinformation used to distort narratives, undermine democracies, and threaten elections.
3)To generate healthy and respectful debate and dialogue, to stimulate much-needed conversations around serious issues affecting our society.
4)To enlighten people, so they can make their own decisions.

5)To encourage and grow active citizenry.

6)To help facilitate positive social and environmental change.
7)To attempt to effect narrative and behavioural change around issues of key social concern.