Monitor My Lockdown

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. Countries enforced lockdowns: closing borders, non-essential travel, and workplaces to restrict human movement. Lockdowns are essential, but are effective if citizens comply with restrictions. How can policymakers measure if lockdown legislations are working in real-time? 

I analyzed subsurface seismic vibrations to measure changes in surface-level human movements. I gathered data (pre-lockdown to during-lockdown period) from Canadian seismic stations and extracted higher frequency seismic vibrations (5-20Hz) associated with urban activities: traffic, construction, and tourism. These vibrations decreased 12%-55% for Canadian cities during lockdowns. The decrease was steeper during weekends, and the comparison allows identification of likely sources of human activities.

www.MonitorMyLockdown.com app displays changes in human movement in real-time without impinging on people’s privacy. Policymakers can use it to enforce surgical lockdowns and health workers to forecast where COVID-19 cases are likely to spike, leading to better pandemic management.

PROBLEM: 

Over 120 countries enforced some forms of lockdown once the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on 11 March 2021. But lockdowns are effective only if citizens comply with the restrictions and stay at home. This happens when people can see the evidence that lockdowns are working, everyone is following the rules, and are helping them overcome the pandemic sooner.

Current methods to measure changes in human movement during lockdowns either track mobile phone movements that impinge on peoples' privacy, use proprietary datasets (high-resolution satellite imagery), or provided delayed information (based on data from sensors and surveys). 

These methods did not gain traction in pandemic management in most countries because of the economic, technological and political costs and limitations associated with implementing them.

GOAL:

Develop a low-cost and low-technology based model and an app to measure changes in human movement in real-time using open data- without impinging on people’s privacy, and could be replicated anywhere. This will make it acceptable for most countries and lead to its widespread use.

Measuring effectiveness of lockdown in real-time will save lives, keep costs of lockdowns lower, help in faster economic recovery, and help us better manage future pandemics.

To measure surface-level changes in human movement, I turned subsurface to seismic data. Seismic stations are used to detect earthquakes but are sensitive to urban vibrations of traffic, construction, tourism, and cultural events. 

Research studies have shown that while natural ground vibrations from earthquakes occur at a lower frequency of 0Hz - 2Hz, human-caused vibrations from transportation, construction, and cultural noises occur at a higher frequency of 5Hz - 20Hz. 

I applied this research to monitor the effectiveness of COVID-19 lockdowns in 9 Canadian cities using data from Canadian seismic stations.

• I downloaded raw seismic waveform data: from the pre-lockdown (Nov 2019 – Mar 2020) to during-lockdown period (Mar 2020 – Mar 2021).
• I calculated the 'Power Spectral Density' or the intensity of seismic vibrations at different frequencies by applying Fast Fourier transformations to every 15-minute segment of waveform data.
• I separated higher-frequency vibrations related to human activities (5Hz - 20Hz) from lower frequency natural vibrations (0Hz – 2Hz) and compared them to the pre-lockdown period to measure changes in anthropogenic vibrations because of the lockdowns.

I wrote algorithms in Python and used Obspy, Matplotlib, and Sci-Kit learn libraries for data analysis. An App was created based on this data.

COVID-19 may be spread globally, but its impact are distributed unequally. Richer countries with access to better health care, vaccines, social safety nets, advanced internet infrastructure and better pandemic monitoring mechanisms are able to better cope up with the impacts of COVID-19, including prolonged lockdowns. Developing countries have to face steeper and longer-term consequences of the pandemic. 

If there was a better manage the pandemic such as through surgical lockdowns based on time and location instead of blanket lockdowns that envelop the entire cities then we could open up economies earlier. These will ensure that people in developing countries who do not have the savings or government support to bank upon can support their families and livelihoods. A better pandemic lockdown monitoring system based on low-technology and open data will also be easier to set up and its use can be expanded to health care, frontline workers and small businesses.

I hope to first test my model in my country, see how well it functions, and how it is received by policymakers and public, and then expand it to other countries.

Based on my model and research, I found out that anthropogenic seismic vibrations fell by 12% - 55% in Canadian cities during the tightest lockdown weeks as borders were closed, construction and factories shuttered, aircraft grounded, and non-essential travel reduced.

Another interesting result was the sharp decrease in anthropogenic
seismic vibrations during weekends for almost all cities. During the
lockdown period, malls, movie halls, sports stadiums, and cultural events that draw maximum human activities during the weekend were closed leading to the sharp decrease.

IMMEDIATE APPLICATION:

Seismic data is free, open-source, and available globally. Policymakers can monitor in real-time if lockdown legislation is working and people are staying at home to enforce surgical lockdowns. This would lower the costs of lockdowns and economic activities can continue in areas where the pandemic is in control and people are abiding with restrictions.

DIRECT IMPACTS:

Health workers will be able to predict when and where pandemic cases are likely to spike-based and plan for testing kits and personal protection equipment.

Smaller businesses will be able to better plan their inventory and make more predictable future plans depending on how effective the lockdowns are and what results they are likely to yield. At present, these smaller business are facing the brunt of the lockdown as they have to incur high costs to temporarily shut down and then restart their business based on lockdown restrictions in effects.

Conclusions from my model are:

COVID-19 lockdowns led to seismic silences across Canadian cities: Anthropogenic seismic vibrations fell by 12-55% during the tightest lockdown weeks.

Open Seismic data serves as a proxy for measuring changes in human movement during lockdowns: As soon as the lockdowns were imposed, an immediate drop in anthropogenic seismic vibrations was observed.

Sources and timings of human movements can be identified for surgical lockdowns: While closure of workplaces, schools, construction have a greater impact on weekday vibrations, closure of entertainment/cultural sector affect weekend vibrations more. 

The conclusions make it possible to achieve the objectives I set.

The prototype www.MonitorMyLockdown.com is working wonderfully. I used it to test the effectiveness of lockdowns in 9 Canadian cities (Calgary, Halifax, Montreal, Ottawa, Quebec City, Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, Whitehorse). I have released 12 Bulletin detailing Human-Movement numbers during lockdown for these cities since 9 February 2021:

https://artashnath.com/seismic...

The results have been published in mainstream media (newspapers, national television, talk shows) and led to its use by different stakeholders, including Members of Provincial Parliaments, Member of Parliaments, Health Workers and Media.

20 February 2021: Monitor My Lockdown. Interview of Artash Nath on CTV National News with anchor Angie Seth. CTV News. https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=2144481

12 February 2021: A Toronto teenager unravels the connection between seismic waves and COVID-19. Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/02/12/watch-a-toronto-teenager-unravels-the-connection-between-seismic-waves-and-covid-19.html

I am expanding the Prototype to cities in other countries. It will help me identify other challenges, opportunities and potentials which would help me in scaling up this solution.

The solution is innovative in 4 ways:

1. It uses open data (seismic data) as a basis for measuring effectiveness of lockdowns.

2. It uses open technology and standards for interpreting available data.

3. It is easy to set up and provides results in real-time.

4. It does not require people to possess electronic devices as it does not track human movements - and therefore does not impinge on privacy issues.

This makes the solution acceptable, replicable and workable in most countries. This is important because in pandemic times we are only safe when everyone is safe. 

As the solution has low barriers to entry - it does not require huge capital, source code is available in the public domain, and does not require human resources with advanced programming skills - it is likely to be quickly adopted in most countries. It would improve global management of ongoing and future pandemic.

The prototype currently works for 9 major Canadian cities. It may expand to 14 cities by the end of the year.

The project could then be scaled to any city that shows interest and is willing to host it.

I am currently measuring the interest I am getting in this idea from inside and outside Canada. At the moment, the idea that we need to prepare ourselves for future pandemics: COVID-24, COVID-36 is gaining acceptance by policymakers in most countries. 

It is also clear that this pandemic requires action from all countries, as no single country can vanquish the pandemic. We have seen that variants keep emerging and threaten to undo the gains made by some countries.

I have been invited to speak about my project and ideas at various events which is a proxy for interest in this model and the need to set up a global pandemic monitoring initiative. 

Measuring Reduction in Human Movement during COVID-19 Lockdowns using Open Seismic Data (Artash Nath). Measuring Development 2021: Emerging Data and Methods in Global Health Research. Center for Effective Global Action. University of California, Berkeley. https://cega.berkeley.edu/event/measuring-development-2021-emerging-data-and-methods-in-global-health-research/

7 December 2020: Oral Presentation: The Silence of Canadian Cities: The Seismology Impact of the Covid19 Lockdown (Artash Nath). American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2020 Fall Conference. https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm20/webprogram/Paper706545.html

Currently, I am the only one working on this project. However, I have access to broader seismology community for technical expertise, getting access to data and undertake validation of my methodology and results.

I have been working at the interface of artificial intelligence, robotics, and big data for past few years. I understand the need to innovate quick custom solutions for new and emerging challenges.

Having participated in 45+ hackathons and winning many of them, experience of working with global teams, and the passion to "make ideas happen" by creating prototypes, models and apps, rather than simply telling people about them, makes me well-suited for this project.

I am a Global Winner of the 2020 NASA Space Apps COVID-19 Challenge from 2000 teams and understand what it takes to solve an ongoing and emerging challenge in a quick span of time

Pandemic management is probably the biggest inter-generation challenge we will face after climate change and planetary defense. And I would like to be in the midst of the group that is looking for solutions, iterating them and then delivering robust solutions that will transform the world.

I am currently in Grade 9. I have undertaken year-long courses on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (from the University of Toronto) and on Quantum Computing (IBM). 

I speak English, French and Hindi. I have communication and leadership skills to work with people from different backgrounds and time zones, in person or on Zoom.

Work with the best talent, be open to new ideas and be willing to learn new things at all times.

Lastly, focus on leadership, where team members are rewarded for asking the right questions, thinking creatively and making efforts to come with a solution.

COVID-19 is not the deadliest or last of the pandemics. There will be others in the future. Are we better prepared for COVID-24 or COVID-32? Would we be in a better position to prevent collapse of health systems, save lives, save livelihoods, or bringing global economies to a standstill?

I am applying to "SOLVE" so that the most effective tool- lockdown, that countries have to check human to human transmission of the viruses, and buy time for development of vaccines can be effectively implemented and monitored. It will allow the idea of lockdowns monitoring can gain traction in all countries.

Applying to "SOLVE" will help the idea to be developed further - bringing greater collaboration, newer ideas, develop newer services so that the world as a whole can emerge from pandemics quicker with minimal losses. 

I believe COVID-19 is not the last pandemic. Deadlier and prolonged pandemics are bound to emerge from different parts of the world. Once they emerge, it is only a distribution problem before they become widespread in a globalized world affecting, travel, trade, finance and security. The risks of pandemic may be low but the impact it has is very high as we have seen from COVID-19 and previous pandemics such as SARS.

If we can minimize the impacts, then we are in a better position to take on the pandemic risks.

This make pandemic management an intergenerational challenge and concerted efforts need to be made today using big data, technology and computing power we have at our disposal.

Furthermore, the younger generation has to live and adapt to the new realities of re-emergence of pandemics. Therefore, their voices and participation of youths should be encouraged. And "Monitor My Lockdown"  project aims to enthuse new generation of youth corps to come with new products and services related to pandemic monitoring.

MIT Faculty: Scale up the project through newer ideas related to technology, and entrepreneurship

World Health Organisation: Become critical "information" partner so that the App could be quickly adapted regionally (for epidemics) or globally (for pandemics)

UN Global Pulse: Help created linkages at the country levels to get big data to run custom services.