Data Analysis of COVID-19 in the Major Islands of The Bahamas

Study of COVID-19 at the level of individual island groups; the effectiveness of intervention policies, treatments and national financial policies.

John Dilworth, Primary Investigator.

This study will be focused on the Commonwealth of The Bahamas, a small island nation with a population of just over 396,000. Most of the population lives on the island of New Providence, and the remainder are scattered over some 14 other island groups, many of which are quite isolated. The Government has kept detailed records of the COVID-19 pandemic over the individual island groups, some of which had different interventions in force at any particular time. An aim of the study is to compile this daily data and make it available so that researchers can use it to determine how well this country has dealt with the pandemic, and whether lessons can be learned from this data that may be applicable throughout the world. 

Three main objectives have been defined:

1. Determination of optimal intervention measures (such as curfews, lockdowns, travel restrictions, business closures, etc.) for controlling a pandemic, by studying the effects of these measures in small isolated communities.

2. An analysis of the effectiveness of various treatments and therapeutics administered nationally.

3. Examination of the financial effects of a pandemic in a small country heavily reliant on tourism, and the most appropriate measures to preserve its economy.

The target audiences are policy makers and decision makers, public health organizations, physicians and hospitals, researchers, and financial planners throughout the world. These audiences need reliable accurate data in order to make their decisions. I will be engaging with a selected local audience in the Bahamas during the development stage using remote conferencing. After deployment of the Solution on the internet, users will be encouraged to partake in surveys to gauge their interest and satisfaction with the Solution.

The public good of this Solution is to make available to members of the public all the data collected, so that they can obtain and examine it for themselves with a free-to-use dashboard.

The target audiences are policy makers and decision makers, public health organizations, physicians and hospitals, researchers, and financial planners throughout the world. These people need accurate information as to what is effective in dealing with a pandemic. The Solution will help them by providing free-of-charge data and information that they can analyze and use in their decision making. Impacts can be evaluated by measurement of site traffic and surveys of user satisfaction, with their suggestions and comments.

The Solution is a tool for internet users to access a novel data set covering the course of the pandemic over small isolated populations, in addition to treatments and national financial data. It is intended to provide the data needed for decision makers to make better informed decisions that will have a beneficial impact on millions of lives.

The data will be collected during the first year and will not be available to the public until year 2, when the data driven website is made operational.

No pilot is envisaged. The proposed Solution is currently at the Proof of Concept stage, and so there is no progress to measure so far.

During the design and data collection phase in year 1, impact will be assessed by obtaining feedback from selected audience and an evaluation survey.

In years 2-3, after deployment to the web, impacts can be evaluated by measurement of site visitor traffic and surveys of user satisfaction, suggestions and comments.

The project is dependent on the willingness and cooperation of various Bahamas Government agencies to provide data, and some employees may have an additional work load. This might be a barrier. It is expected that association with the Trinity Challenge will provide the assurance that this Solution is for the public good and has a strong academic provenance. This will help to influence leaders in the Bahamas Government to have their staff assist with this project.

Another potential barrier is the possibility that the data collected by the Government may be disorganized and/or not easily accessible.

Another barrier is the technical expertise required to develop the web site linked to the database. It is expected that members of the worldwide xBase++ community would be able to assist, for a fee.

None.

As previously mentioned, the project is dependent on cooperation of various Bahamas Government agencies to provide data, and some employees may gain an additional work load. This might be a barrier. It is expected that association with the Trinity Challenge will provide the assurance that this Solution is for the public good and has a strong academic provenance. This will help to influence leaders in the Bahamas Government to get their agencies to cooperate.

In addition, funding will be needed for the website development phase and a possible source may be the Trinity Challenge itself.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation could be of great help in this project as they are doing similar work. They would be able to provide advice on data elements design and analysis.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation are already collecting data from the Bahamas on a national scale, and so they can provide contacts in the Bahamas Government, which would greatly assist in advancing this Solution.