e-Demic

COVID-19 is the pandemic of the century and has forced most of the world in lockdown. However, physical distancing measures and epidemiologic tracing of contacts, alone, won't bring the "R0" factor  below 1 while lockdowns and restrictions are removed. Efficiently tracing potentially infected people and isolating them is crucial to stopping the spread of infection.

e-Demic traces all past contacts of infected people by using Bluetooth, Wi-Fi and GPS technologies, which makes it more efficient compared to the use of a single technology. Our method of smartphone distance calculation through Wi-Fi data makes it unique. Anonymized data and decentralized tracing using blockchain technology (no saving of user data on server) makes its privacy and anonymity better than all other systems being developed worldwide.

Should e-Demic be installed by approximately 60% of mobile users in any country, it would greatly facilitate the work of epidemiologists and help prevent COVID-19 infections.

John Hopkins data shows that, as of June 18, COVID-19 has infected at least 8.3 million people worldwide, of which more than 2.1 million in the US. US counts more than 117K deaths while global deaths surpass 440K.

COVID-19 infection is spread mainly through aerosol particles emitted by nearby infected people. The virus infects a healthy person if they intake a sufficient quantity of viral particles. Several experts (here, here and here) have quantified the infectious dose to be ~1000 particles.

To prevent the spread of infection, hospitals conduct epidemiologic tracing of past contacts of infected people for the past 14 days (here), which is very difficult for individuals who were in public places/gatherings. Infected people become contagious for at least three-four days before symptoms appear. Statistically 40% of the infected people may be asymptomatic (here), making their epidemiologic tracing more difficult and exacerbating infection spread (here).

Existing centralised contact tracing apps are poised to fail because they pose a great risk to people privacy (here, here and here), and are based solely on Bluetooth (which is not always kept "On").

e-Demic consists of a free general public app and a desktop software for hospitals and departments of health. Like all other contact tracing apps, e-Demic uses Bluetooth technology with anonymized identifiers to detect other smartphones' proximity.

Unlike all other apps, e-Demic also uses Wi-Fi technology to detect distances from nearby routers, and through a proprietary algorithm determines other smartphones' proximity with extremely high privacy preservation.

Finally, e-Demic uses anonymised and encrypted GPS coordinates to detect other smartphones' proximity in open areas, when Bluetooth or Wi-Fi signals are missing.

The diagnosed person scans a QR code to send its anonymised and encrypted data to other smartphones. Apps that receive this data run their own checks using (in order) Bluetooth, Wi-Fi and GPS information to detect if they have been close to the infected person. If so, the app prompts the potentially-infected user to isolate and contact the hospital. By pressing a button, the potentially-infected user can repeat the process so that other people can detect if they have been in contact with the "potentially-infected" and decide if they should isolate and contact the hospital.

e-Demic is a decentralised and distributed contact tracing method, that doesn't store users' data on server.

Our solution will target anyone that has a smartphone with Android or IOS operating systems. We discussed with doctors and public health authorities to understand their difficulties in epidemiologically tracing past contacts of infected people and devised this solution: e-Demic.

We also analysed many proposed solutions to this problem, such as the Pan-European Privacy-Preserving Proximity-Tracing initiative, DP-3T, and a number of other apps. They all use Bluetooth technology to trace past contacts and present two main pitfalls:

• Bluetooth does not work when: apps are in background; the user does not keep Bluetooth "ON"; Bluetooth is not set as "Discoverable".
• Centralized systems store Bluetooth pseudo-random identifiers in a server and can pose a high risk for privacy breach. People fearing privacy breach will not use the app and will vitiate the system.

Our preliminary survey shows that our decentralised privacy-preserving solution will be widely accepted and used, ensuring high overall efficiency. The additional application of Wi-Fi and GPS will ensure that at least one technology will always be available for contract tracing. Hospitals will have a much easier task for tracing past contacts and break the infection chain, which will save thousands of lives.

Lowering the "R0" factor of viral infection to below 1 and preventing COVID-19 from infecting the entire population is paramount for eradicating the virus and allow a return to normal activities, especially since the availability of a potential vaccine is still months away.

Our solution specifically addresses the way we can detect and control the spread of the pandemic. e-Demic allows contact tracing for COVID-19 infections, as well as future epidemics and health security threats, in addition to the possibility of tracing more than one infection simultaneously.

e-Demic makes use of three available mobile phone technologies while most other competitive apps use centralised tracing methods, whereby Bluetooth users' data is stored in a server and used to trace past contacts and alert them of possible infection. Other solutions have two major pitfalls, which are addressed in e-Demic as follows:

• Use of Wi-Fi and GPS technology in addition to Bluetooth, ensuring that whenever Bluetooth is not available one of the other two will be available, thus increasing the overall efficiency of the system.
• Use of a decentralised system of tracing, with blockchain technology peer-to-peer data transfer, which does not store users' data on server, and conducts contact tracing on each user's app, with anonymised and encrypted data for further protection.

In particular, usage of Wi-Fi signals from nearby routers/hot-points makes e-Demic unique and with no competition. This is particularly interesting in closed areas (such as shopping Mall's, hotels, sport/conference centres, public transportation, etc.) where Wi-Fi signals are abundant. While people may not keep the Bluetooth "On"/"Discoverable" continually, they are very likely to keep their Wi-Fi "On". e-Demic uses the beacon signal, continually transmitted by router/hot-spots, to identify proximity to a smartphone, without transmitting any data, thus becoming the most privacy-preserving method.

We are also planning the development of a wearable device that will automatically control several COVID-19 symptoms and communicate with e-Demic to alert the user and the hospital. The wearable device will also conduct Bluetooth proximity tracing, which is very useful for children and elderly without smartphones.

e-Demic uses Bluetooth as the primary contact tracing technology. It generates an encrypted and anonymised identifier, modified at regular intervals, and broadcasts it through Bluetooth beacon. 

e-Demic stores in a special database all Bluetooth identifiers and distance from other smartphones, all Wi-Fi routers/hotspots MAC addresses (transmitted by their beacons) and distances from the smartphone, and the GPS coordinates of the smartphone.

The DOH determines the "criteria" for infection transmission distance and time, through their desktop software.

When a user is diagnosed, they scan a QR code from the doctor desktop and their smartphone sends their anonymised and encrypted database to other smartphones, using blockchain technology. Apps that receive this database check whether the "criteria" is satisfied if, at any time in the past:

1. its Bluetooth identifiers exist in the database of the infected person;
2. the distance between the two smartphones, calculated through a proprietary algorithm that uses received Wi-Fi information, was close enough;
3. the distance between the two smartphones, calculated from GPS coordinates, was close enough.

If the two smartphones were within a short distance and the "criteria" is satisfied, the app determines that its user is potentially-infected and prompts them to isolate and contact the hospital.

The proprietary and anonymous usage of received Wi-Fi beacon information, without connecting to routers and without knowing their coordinates, makes this app unique.

We also plan to use blockchain technology for secure data sharing between smartphones.

The use of Bluetooth technology to detect proximity of other Bluetooth devices is a well-know and long-existing technique, whose usage for proximity tracing to fight COVID-19 infection is well described in the website of Pan-European Privacy-Preserving Proximity-Tracing initiative, or its GitHub site, or the DP-T3 Pan-European platform.

The usage of GPS coordinates of two smartphones to calculate the distance separating them, is also well-known. There are several formulae to calculate said distance, starting with the simplified Haversine formula. This paperdescribes a way for calculating distances from two sets of GPS coordinates.

There are several methods for calculating the distance between the Wi-Fi emitting and receiving antennae, starting from FSPL. Several books (here, here) contain useful information on such calculations. Once the distance of two smartphones from the same 3-4 Wi-Fi routers is determined, we estimate the distance between the smartphones by calculating the weighted average of square roots of the sum of squares-of-differences of the distance of each smartphone from the same Wi-Fi device. While this is not an exact calculation of the distance between two smartphones, it is much more informative than when Bluetooth-only technology is used, since Bluetooth settings could be turned "Off" by the user or the app’s access to Bluetooth may be blocked by the OS.

The above method of GPS and Wi-Fi data usage is protected by a patent.

e-Demic is a digital platform that helps tracing past contacts of COVID-19 infected people through its free smartphone app. e-Demic has better contact tracing efficiency compared to all other apps because of the combined usage of Bluetooth, Wi-Fi and GPS technology, together with the best guarantee of privacy protection because of the decentralised system and secure blockchain peer-to-peer data transfer technology. It turns the smartphone into a warning system and will enable us to break the chain of infection faster.

The prototype we have built demonstrated the validity of the concept: the effective recognition of past contacts, the smartphone warning system and the privacy of the operation. Our online survey has shown wide acceptance of the concept by a number of potential users in different countries.

Several countries have built similar apps (comprehensive list here), the most similar being the DP-3T app and Corona-Warn app. They have sufficiently proved that Bluetooth proximity tracing can really identify past contacts and that the decentralised systems preserve privacy much better than centralised ones.

With the added functionality of Wi-Fi and GPS proximity detection, e-Demic offers reliable past contract tracing even if the user turns Bluetooth “off” or sets it as “undiscoverable”. It will help us to determine more efficiently whether we have come into contact with a COVID-19 infected person and whether there is a risk of infection, allowing us to take the appropriate actions (self-isolate, call the hospital, etc.) and prevent further infection spread. It will protect the health of the user and of all other human beings as well as user’s privacy.

On a larger scale, e-Demic will help WHO and national health institutions to completely interrupt the infection chain and, finally, eradicate COVID-19. On an even larger scale, e-Demic will help interrupt the infection chain of any future novel infection, as soon as it is detected and before it becomes epidemic or pandemic.

Currently, our solution is in "prototype" status and has no public users.

We plan to introduce this solution initially in Albania and the Western Balkans, within the next six months, and serve as many as 25 million people.

We hope to introduce this solution in Europe and the US within one year, and serve as many as 500 million people.

Our most ambitious hopes are that this system becomes so widely accepted that, in five years, 70% of all people that own a smartphone worldwide will install it. This way we may serve up to 5.5 billion people.

Our short-term goal is to help Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia and other Western Balkans countries flatten and lower the rate of COVID-19 infection spread by quick and easy tracing of potential contacts of infected people, after which, it will be the responsibility of each government to ask their potentially infected people to self-isolate or to conduct intensive testing of all such potential infections. e-Demic, together with its wearable device, can also help health institutions control the strict observance of self-isolation of infected people, and alert institutions if self-isolation is violated.

Our medium-term goal is to prove the usefulness of this solution to EU and US governments and to WHO, and introduce it in several EU countries and in the US.

Our long-term goal is to help worldwide health organisations control and eradicate COVID-19, as well as to help us prepare to immediately contain any future viral infection. e-Demic can trace not only COVID-19, but any other future infection, as soon as it is identified in any country, and prevent it from becoming a global pandemic.

We truly believe that e-Demic could help save thousands of lives.

Our foundation has made an initial investment of about 20K for the prototype, and is now facing financial difficulty to continue with the full development of the platform, which requires an immediate investment of 200K, plus an annual investment of approximately 10K for the maintenance of the system.

Other barriers include the need to convince Western Balkans governments of the utility of this system and to overcome resistance from EU member states that are producing their own contact-tracing apps, but which are all based on centralised approaches and on usage of Bluetooth technology alone. We believe that it will be challenging to make governments agree that their applications: 1) include a potential privacy risk, and 2) may be inefficient because of Bluetooth usage only.

Another EU market barrier is the use of GPS data, which has been categorically refused by many EU member states. Usage of GPS data can breach users' privacy in a centralised system, but not in a decentralised system that uses blockchain technology for peer-to-peer data transmission.

Finally, while the mobile app will be free, the last barrier that we foresee is the cost of the desktop software for health organisations. Most of the current contact-tracing apps are not designed to interact with hospitals and have no financial costs for the governments. Our system is designed to interact with central governments (as admin of the system for each country) and with hospitals for infection diagnosis and QR code scanning.

Our foundation is pursuing a fund-raising campaign in Albania in order to secure funds for the development of the final product. We are also participating at a local Information and Communication Technology Award competition, that may secure some of the required funding. Winning this award will also increase our visibility, which will help with overcoming national government reluctance.

We hope to win this Solve competition in order to secure the required funding and to give more credit and visibility to our project, which will also help with convincing local governments.

We observe a certain reluctance of the EU population to the installation and application of government apps, because of fears of privacy breaches. We believe that within 3 months this will turn to our advantage, if we can efficiently convey the message that our app is decentralised and uses blockchain peer-to-peer technology for unbreachable privacy.

We plan to leverage the anonymous usage of GPS data combined with blockchain technology to convince national governments and people that our system preserves privacy very efficiently.

Finally, being a nonprofit foundation, we plan to set the license cost of our desktop software very low, to a level that allows us to cover the development costs and annual maintenance. If we win "The Elevate Prize" we can also distribute the desktop software free of charge.

Full-Time staff:  3 people

Part-Time staff:  10 people

Contractors : 10 people

Think Bank Albania (TBA) is a think tank nation ecosystem that has brought together more than 1000 of the brightest minds of Albanian diaspora in STEM  fields: scientists (PhD, post-doc) and inventors. Our talented scientists have extensive worldwide experience in their specific fields, which include post-doc researchers in electronics, information technology, medicine, micro-biology, virology, etc.

TBA also includes inventors that have several patents each, using their innovations in many technical fields worldwide and contributing to the overall advancement of science and technology.

We are convinced that such important talent and skills pool will enable TBA to achieve our goals.

We have partnered with the University of Tirana and are seeking partnership with Mayo Clinic in the US.

Think Bank Albania is a think-tank nonprofit foundation. Our key resources are the talent, knowledge and skills of more than 1000 of the brightest minds of Albanian diaspora scientists and inventors. We have also partnered with the University of Tirana and excellence students in information technology.

We offer a solution to contain COVID-19 infection spread and help save lives of thousands of people. John Hopkins data shows that more than 8.3 million people have been infected and more than 440K have died. Epidemiologic contact tracing has proved difficult and insufficient to contain the infection spread. The usage of three mobile technologies and decentralised tracing with blockchain technology makes our solution more efficient and privacy-preserving than all other apps.

Our solution is designed to have a development cost ot not more than €200K, which will enable us to offer the free app to all users and establish a very affordable fee for the desktop software of hospitals or health institutions. Annual maintenance will cost €20K and scaling up will not add additional costs.

We have already built the prototype platform (app + desktop) and planned the full development activities to be completed within one month. The desktop software will be web-based and will be offered as the revenue generating service to our customers, which are national governments, health organisations and hospitals, while profit will be reinvested in the foundation. National governments will be our channel for reaching all users of the app, which are the final beneficiary of our solution.

We are participating in a local Information and Communication Technology Award competition, which will allow us to raise some funding in the form of grants. 

Winning the Solve challenge and The Elevate Prize will allow us to secure funding to cover the whole costs of the development of the digital platform, and we could distribute the solution at no cost for our target market.

In case we do not win The Elevate Prize, the visibility we will get from the Solve challenge would help us attract investments in the form of equity and complete the development. In this case, our desktop software would be distributed as a paid service and the fee will be calculated to repay the investment within 5 years. The low development cost of our solution will generate very affordable fees for our service.

Our COVID-19 contact tracing platform needs funding to complete the development, peer reviews of technology application, strategic advice and high visibility for introducing the solution in a very niche market (national and local governments).

If we win SOLVE we will have access to funding and to highly qualified professionals for peer-reviews. We hope to get enough visibility and strategic advice to help us overcome the reluctance of national governments for the substitution of their own apps with this platform.

We also wish to receive strategic advice on how to best structure the system and how to partner with the WHO, which, to our belief, should be the super-admin of the whole system, controlling the status of the pandemic across countries.

Think Bank Albania is looking for:

• foundations interested in providing grant capital under a “Bond to Impact” model, or for Angel investors.
• partner to review and evaluate our business model and financial analysis, or propose a different one.
• partner for e-Demic marketing and media exposure, to present the benefits of e-Demic both on privacy preservation and on tracing efficiency, compared to other apps.
• a partner for product and service delivery to the aforementioned geographical areas.

Think Bank Albania would like to partner with the WHO for the testing of the platform as well as with any other public health organisation. Partnering with the WHO would ensure better testing of the platform and would allow us to better adapt the platform to any country and to worldwide needs.

We would also like to partner with the MIT for the improvement of distance calculations based on signal strength, both for Bluetooth and Wi-Fi signals, and for finding ways to take into account the effect of different signal barriers or of reflective surfaces.

Other partners would include communication or media partners, but we do not have specific names in mind.

Think Bank Albania is a think-tank nation ecosystem that has brought together more than 1000 of the brightest minds of Albanian diaspora in STEM  fields: scientists (PhD, post-doc) and inventors. We have influenced social development in Albania during the last three years and examples are the introduction of “Schoolme” and "Tech-Space Tirana" digital platforms.

I have been a resilient and transformational leader, that changed the loss of director’s position with a leading US oil company, into an opportunity to become deputy-minister in Albania. While serving as deputy-minister I introduced a policy that prohibited usage of pyrotechnic-fuse detonators in mining, replacing them with electric detonators, saving many miner lives and preserving the wellbeing of their families.

We are convinced that at TBA we have the talent, knowledge and experience to bring a positive change for the global well-being of the society. We want to put our energy to the service of society in the fight against Covid-19. The solution had to be efficient and affordable if we want to eradicate this coronavirus, because it should be adopted by all countries.

Our solution is more effective, privacy protecting and affordable than others. It’s development costs are in the order of 200K euros, while other similar apps cost many times more.

We will use The Elevate Prize funding to finalise the development of e-Demic and launch it for free in Albania and Western Balkans' countries. We will use the gained visibility to convince these governments to adopt our system to fight COVID-19.